The Congressional Budget Office predicts $54 billion cost in hurricane and flood damage over the next few years. Some analyses predict that for every dollar spend on flood mitigation and prevention measures leads to up to $6 dollars save in losses. What the fail to account for is the losses of your business been closed. Reach out to us an learn how we can help mitigate the flood mitigation losses that your business can endure.
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The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, is June 1 to November 30; These storm names were last used in 2013, which was a “quiet” hurricane season, with no major hurricanes.
In the event more than 21 named storms form in the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center says additional storms will be named from the Greek alphabet.
Long before these basins crank up with tropical waves, storms, and hurricanes, the National Hurricane Center establishes a list of storm names that will be assigned when a weather event is powerful enough to be named.
A tropical system gets its name when it maintains sustained wind speeds of 39 miles per hour, at which point it is officially a tropical storm. Many named systems never reach hurricane status, when winds reach 74 miles per hour.
Until the 1950s, tropical storms and hurricanes were tracked by the order in which they occured each year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “Over time, it was learned that the use of short, easily remembered names in written as well as spoken communications is quicker and reduces confusion when two or more tropical storms occur at the same time. In the past, confusion and false rumors resulted when storm advisories broadcast from radio stations were mistaken for warnings concerning an entirely different storm located hundreds of miles away.”
Hurricane naming began in 1953, with only female names used until 1978. Male names were added in 1979.
Storm names are in alphabetical order, skipping Q, U, X, Y, and Z (in the Atlantic basin), and alternate between male and female names. There are six lists of 21 names, and each list is recycled every six years. (i.e., 2018’s names will be used again in 2024, 2019’s will be used again in 2025, and so on.)
Any storm names that were used for a particularly deadly or costly hurricane are retired and replaced. The names Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate were retired following the devastating 2017 season.
The byzantine networks of rivers and streams that drain the Midwest is facing a flooding crisis of historic proportions. The multibillion disaster centered in Nebraska will spread this spring, with above average rainfall expected to cause floods to impact some 200 million Americans living near rivers. And it won’t necessarily end once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
This spring’s floods will shape this summer’s dead zone. The area of low oxygen is an annual occurrence driven in large part by nutrient-laden runoff that washes down the Mississippi River and its many tributaries, fueling algae blooms when it reaches the Gulf. The dead zone in 2017 was the largest that’s ever been recorded at nearly 9,000 square miles, and while it’s much too early to say exactly how big this summer’s dead zone will be, the flooding we’ve seen so far doesn’t bode well. Another enormous dead zone would put pressure on Gulf marine life and fisheries
“The flooding we see this month, in March, may ultimately determine the size of the Gulf of Mexico dead zone in August,” Kimberly Van Meter, a researcher who studies water and ecosystems at the University of Illinois at Chicago, told Earther.
And this year’s floods are already shaping up to record setting. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the upper Mississippi and Red River of the North basins have doubled their normal spring rainfall totals. That includes areas that were smacked by a rare bomb cyclone earlier this month that dumped rain on snow and set the flooding overtaking the region in motion. NOAA forecasts indicate areas all along the Mississippi River basin could face major flooding through May as snow continues to melt amid a forecast for heavier than normal rainfall over the next few months.
As the floodwater wash over farmer’s fields, they’ll do more than strip soil. They can also scoop up fertilizer and other organic matter and transport it downriver. The nutrient-rich water will reach the Gulf of Mexico sometime in June, which will kickstart the dead zone.
“In the simplest terms, the more nitrate that is transported downstream to the Gulf, the larger the size of the dead zone,” Van Meter said. “Nitrate is food for algae, and spring floods essentially deliver a large, delicious meal to the Gulf just as temperatures start to rise and the algae start to grow. Decades of fertilizer application and intensive livestock production across the Mississippi River Basin have created large stores of nitrate in the landscape, just waiting for the next flood to carry them to the Gulf.”
As that algae bloom grows, it hoovers up all the oxygen that marine life needs to survive. The process is known as hypoxia, and chokes marine life to death. But they also take a toll on humans as well. Separate algae blooms in Lake Erie have befouled drinking water. Those along Florida’s coasts have harmed the tourism industry. The Gulf of Mexico dead zone creates its own hardships.
“We’ve got data that it’s essentially a doughnut hole that forms with brown shrimp where they are avoiding areas that are low oxygen and they’re congregating on the edge,” David Kidwell, a researcher at NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, told Earther.
Recent NOAA-funded research has shown that the dead zone can cause small and large shrimp prices to fluctuate, with fishermen catching fewer high-value large shrimp when a dead zone is present. Climate change is liable to make blooms worse by intensifying the hydrological cycle and warming waters. Whether the historic flooding that just hit the Midwest leads to a historic dead zone is not set in stone, though.
Kidwell said that the annual dead zone forecast NOAA and the U.S. Geological Service puts out in early summer is based in large part on “discharge of the Mississippi River as well as the pure nutrient levels in the river at that time,” but other factors could dull their impact. A hurricane—which would offer its own set of problems—could churn up the Gulf and staunch the algae bloom.
Regardless of what happens this season, it’s clear that something has to change in how we manage land and floodwaters. Nancy Rabalais, a marine ecologist at the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, told Earther that it “does not make sense is to rebuild in floodplains” if the end goal is to limit the Gulf dead zone (to say nothing of exposing communities upstream to floodwaters). Reducing the amount of farmland in the floodplain so would ultimately cut down on fertilizer and animal waste being swept into streams and eventually the Gulf. Rabalais said, though, that she knew “what this means economically to the agriculture community” if floodplains were put off limits.
Story provided by EARTHER
Flooding in parts of Tennessee has left one person dead and sparked a state of emergency this weekend.
One person died in Knoxville after driving his car into water on a flooded road early Sunday morning, according to Knox County Sheriff’s Office.
Knox County was under flash flood warning on Saturday afternoon and residents were warned that “this is a particularly dangerous situation. Seek higher ground now,” according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
Nashville broke a rainfall record on Saturday making this the city’s wettest February in over 100 years.
Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) declared a state of emergency Saturday due to rising flood waters and “the potential for more severe weather,” according to the declaration.
In Chattanooga, a Subway restaurant was flattened by a mudslide caused by rain from the same storm system, according to the Signal Mountain Police Department.
Several areas of the city of Dunlap were flooding to dangerous levels, and firefighters were working to evacuate all of the residents that might be in danger from the rising water. Dunlap Fire Department posted video that showed Brush Creek transformed into a rushing river.
The flooding even impacted one of Tennessee’s most famous exports: Jack Daniel’s whiskey.
The grounds of the Jack Daniel’s distillery in Lynchburg flooded on Saturday. Henry Feldhaus IV, who works at the distillery, assured CNN that all employees — and the whiskey — are safe.
As of Sunday at 11 a.m., there were nearly 300 river gauges above flood stage across the Southeast, CNN meteorologist Allison Chinchar said.
And river flooding is likely to get worse before it gets better. Although rain is not expected to return to the area until midweek, it takes time for the rivers, creeks and streams to get rid of all that water, she explained.
The water leaving the roadways, yards, and urban areas eventually drains into rivers, creeks and streams, so many of them will not crest until later in the week, Chinchar said.
Information provided by CNN
The slightly above-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on November 30, but initial outlooks have already been issued for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The season officially starts on June 1. The Tropical Meteorology Project (TMP) at Colorado State University will release its first full forecast on Thursday, April 4. They recently produced a preliminary discussion where they evaluated the likelihood of several hurricane activity scenarios. The TMP is currently giving an approximately 35% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 50% chance of a near-normal hurricane season and a 15% chance of a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2019. For reference the average Atlantic hurricane season has about 12 named storms (maximum winds >= 39 mph), 6 hurricanes (maximum winds >= 74 mph) and 3 major hurricanes (maximum winds >= 111 mph).
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Preliminary Outlook
Above Average 35%
Near Normal 50%
Below Normal 15%
This forecast was based on the premise that North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently slightly below-normal across the far North Atlantic and the tropical Atlantic (Figure 1). In general, the tropical Atlantic has been slightly cooler than normal over the past several months, providing a slight inhibiting factor for Atlantic hurricane formation. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures provide more fuel for developing Atlantic storms.
The development of El Niño (warmer than normal water temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific) is likely during the next couple of months, but there is considerably uncertainty as to whether the El Niño would persist through next year’s hurricane season. El Niño typically produces stronger vertical wind shear (the change wind direction with height in the atmosphere) in the Atlantic basin, tearing apart hurricanes as they are trying to develop.
The U.K.-based Tropical Storm Risk produced their first forecast for the 2019 season on Tuesday, December 11. Their initial forecast calls for a total of 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, or a slightly below-normal season. Their outlook was based on the premise that tropical Atlantic low-level winds are predicted to be slightly greater than the long-term average, because of a weak El Niño event and slightly cooler than normal tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Preliminary Outlook
12 Named Storms
2 Major Hurricanes
Seasonal hurricane outlooks issued in December historically have low levels of skill, since there is a lot that can change in the atmosphere-ocean system between December and the start of the hurricane season in June. Consequently, it is advisable to treat these initial forecasts with caution. Historically, the skill of these outlooks increases as the Atlantic hurricane season approaches. It is also important to note that regardless of the levels of overall hurricane activity experienced in any season, it takes only one significant landfalling hurricane to make it an active season. During the offseason is a great time to make sure that you have reviewed your disaster recovery plan.
In observance of the Holiday and New Year’s, our office will be closed for business on Monday, December 24th through Tuesday, January 1st, 2019. We will back to Normal Business on Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019.
We wish everyone a Safe, Healthy and Happy Holiday Season!
As always, we appreciate your business and look forward to another successful year together.
When you think of the danger a hurricane poses to the unlucky people caught in its path, your first thought is probably the ferocious winds that crash ashore and tear up just about everything exposed to the elements. While the winds are destructive and the flying debris is a serious hazard to anyone caught in the way, the greatest and quietest killer in a tropical cyclone is its storm surge.
- A SURGE IS A SUDDEN INUNDATION OF SEA WATER.
The strong winds of a landfalling tropical cyclone thrust it inland. The flooding that results from storm surges is only a few feet deep most of the time, but the worst surges—like those seen in Hurricane Katrina—can exceed 20 feet or higher. A storm surge comes up quickly and can push water miles inland in the most vulnerable spots during the strongest storms.
- THEY’RE NOT CAUSED BY HURRICANES ALONE.
Hurricanes are most closely associated with storm surges, but they’re not the only storms that can push water inland. Tropical depressions and tropical storms can also inundate coastlines if their winds are strong enough. Powerful winter storms can also generate a life-threatening storm surge. A blizzard that hit the East Coast in January 2016 produced a storm surge in Cape May, New Jersey, that was slightly higher than the one recorded there during Hurricane Sandy a few years earlier.
- TRACK AND TIMING MATTER …
We tell people not to focus on the exact track of a tropical cyclone since the impacts can extend hundreds of miles from the center of the storm. But when it comes to a storm surge, track really does matter. The worst winds in a storm occur in the right-front quadrant of its eyewall, or the part of the storm that’s in front of the eye and to the right of its forward movement. This spot sees the strongest winds influenced by the forward motion of the storm, and it’s where the wind is able to push the most water with it.
Timing also determines how much flooding people at the coast will experience. Coastal flooding will be worse if a storm hits land at high tide since water will be a few feet higher. That couple of feet at high tide doesn’t seem like much, but it can mean the difference between a few roads washed out and a few neighborhoods inundated by water.
- … BUT WIND MATTERS MORE.
The fury behind the surge is wind. The National Hurricane Center says that 95 percent of storm surge is driven by the wind—the other 5 percent is water that rises above sea level due to low air pressure at the center of the storm. A general (and obvious) rule of thumb is that a stronger storm will produce a more destructive storm surge, but surge also depends on other factors like a storm’s forward speed and the size of its wind field.
- WIND IS WHY SANDY WAS SO DEVASTATING.
Even though Hurricane Sandy only had 80 mph winds when it made landfall in New Jersey on October 29, 2012, it was one of the most destructive storms to hit the United States in recorded history. The devastating storm surge that Sandy drove into coastal communities was the result of the immense size of the storm’s wind field.
When Sandy made landfall, the area covered by its tropical storm force winds (39–74 mph) covered more than 1100 miles from South Carolina to Maine. The enormous area covered by these strong winds made up for the storm’s relative lack of concentrated intensity, allowing it to push tremendous amounts of water into the coast.
Hurricane Katrina’s historic storm surge along the northern Gulf Coast in August 2005 was also driven by the sheer size of the storm. Katrina was a massive hurricane with scale-topping category 5 winds to boot. Katrina weakened by the time it reached the coast, but the size of the storm and its former strength still pushed enormous amounts of water into Louisiana and Mississippi.
- CURVY COASTS MAKE A BAD SITUATION WORSE.
As if getting hit with a bad storm weren’t bad enough, the very shape of the coastline itself will determine how much of an impact a storm surge will have on coastal communities. Shallow waters offshore and concave bays and inlets will exacerbate a storm surge and make the inundation deeper than it would have been otherwise.
- LINGERING STORMS DO MORE DAMAGE.
After it made landfall in Florida and moved into the Atlantic Ocean, meteorologists were worried about tropical storm Hermine’s impacts along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines because of how long they expected the storm to linger near land. Forecasts called for Hermine to meander off the coast of New Jersey at or near hurricane strength for four full days before beginning to dissipate. Thankfully, the worst-case scenarios didn’t come to pass, but the threat was real.
Even though Hermine wasn’t forecast to make landfall, the exceptionally long duration of the storm—powerful winds blowing inland for days at a time—threatened to generate a large storm surge along the coast. A slow-moving storm will cause more damage than one that moves through in a matter of hours.